Introduction
The Session Direction Bias reports examine whether the direction established by the first candle after the open tends to persist through the rest of the trading session. By separating green and red first candles and tracking how the day ultimately closes, these reports help frame expectations for continuation versus early failure.
The first candle is defined as the first hour.
Standard Subreport
What does this measure?
This report analyzes the color of the first candle of the session and measures how often the trading session closes in the same direction.
A green opening candle indicates price moved higher during the opening window.
A red opening candle indicates price moved lower during the opening window.
The report groups all green opening candles together and all red opening candles together, then tracks how frequently each leads to a green or red close by the end of the session.
How can I use this?
Use this report to align your intraday bias with early session behavior:
If green opening candles frequently lead to green closes, the market is more likely to reward upside continuation.
If red opening candles often result in red closes, downside continuation becomes more probable.
If continuation rates are low, you may want to reduce directional conviction and manage trades more tightly.
Adjusting the opening candle timeframe allows you to test whether shorter or longer opening windows provide stronger directional signals.
The first candle often captures early positioning, overnight sentiment, and initial liquidity. This report quantifies whether that early directional push tends to persist or fade, helping you avoid relying on intuition alone when deciding whether to hold with momentum or fade it.
Example
9:30am open: $100
10:30am price: $105
Because price is higher at the end of the opening window, the first candle is classified as green.
Weekday Subreport
What does this measure?
This report applies the same session direction logic but segments the results by day of week. It shows how often green or red opening candles lead to green or red closes on specific weekdays.
How can I use this?
Use weekday patterns to add context to the opening signal:
If certain weekdays show stronger continuation after green opening candles, you can be more confident leaning long on those days.
If other weekdays show weaker continuation or more mixed outcomes, you may want to scale back expectations or tighten risk.
This helps prevent treating every trading day as identical when historical behavior suggests otherwise.
Market structure, positioning, and liquidity can vary by weekday. Viewing session direction bias through this lens allows you to judge whether today’s opening move is more likely to follow through or stall based on historical tendencies for that specific day.
Example
Monday 9:30am open: $200
Monday 10:30am price: $190
Because price is lower during the opening window, the first candle is classified as red, and the report evaluates how often Mondays with red opens finish red versus green.
Size Subreport
What does this measure?
This report measures session direction bias based on the size of the first candle. It groups opening candles by size and measures how continuation behavior changes as the opening move becomes larger or smaller.
The goal is to distinguish between minor early moves and more decisive opening impulses.
How can I use this?
Use the size of the first candle size to refine conviction:
Smaller opening moves may be more prone to fading or chop.
Larger opening moves may carry more information and lead to higher continuation rates.
If continuation weakens at certain size thresholds, you can avoid overcommitting when the opening move is modest.
This helps you avoid treating all green or red opening candles as equally meaningful.
Not every opening candle carries the same weight. The size-based view helps you separate noise from intent, allowing you to prioritize continuation setups only when the opening move is historically strong enough to matter.
Example
9:30am open: $100
10:30am price: $95
This is classified as a red first candle, and its percentage move from the open determines which size bucket it falls into for continuation analysis.
Trading the Session Direction Bias Strategy
Across all three views, the Session Direction Bias framework helps answer three core questions:
Does the first move of the day usually stick? (Standard)
Does that behavior change depending on the weekday? (Weekday)
Does the size of the opening move matter? (Size)
By combining these reports, you can decide whether the opening candle should be treated as a meaningful directional signal or simply early noise—allowing you to align with continuation when it’s statistically supported and stay cautious when it isn’t.