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Midnight Retracement

Written by Andrew Hartpence
Updated over 3 months ago

The midnight open is defined as the opening price of the 12:00am ET candle. This level is commonly referenced in ICT-style frameworks and is often treated as a key mean or equilibrium point during the New York session.

These reports measure how often price returns to the midnight open during New York hours only (9:30am–4:00pm ET), helping you determine whether the level is statistically worth targeting on a given day.


Standard Subreport

What does this measure?

This report tracks how often price retraces back to the midnight open at any point during the New York session. Only touches that occur between 9:30am and 4:00pm ET are counted; any interaction outside that window is ignored.

The report answers a simple question:
Once New York opens, how often does price revisit the midnight open?

How can I use this?

Use this report to decide whether the midnight open is a realistic intraday target:

  • If retracements occur frequently, the midnight open can be treated as a valid objective.

  • If retracements are rare, you can avoid trades that rely on price returning to this level.

  • Directional bias can be framed based on where New York opens relative to the midnight open:

    • Open above midnight open → short-side bias toward the level

    • Open below midnight open → long-side bias toward the level

This report helps you avoid assuming the level will be reached without data support.

Understanding and importance

The midnight open often acts as a reference point for overnight positioning and early-session imbalance. This report quantifies whether that reference is actually respected during the New York session, turning a commonly cited concept into a measurable probability.

Example

  • Midnight open (12:00am ET): $4,000

  • New York opens at $4,020

  • During the NY session, price trades down and touches $4,000

  • That day is counted as a midnight open retracement


Weekday Subreport

What does this measure?

This report applies the same midnight open retracement logic but segments results by day of week. It shows how often retracements occur on Mondays, Tuesdays, and so on.

How can I use this?

Use weekday tendencies to refine expectations:

  • If certain weekdays show consistently higher retracement rates, the midnight open becomes a stronger target on those days.

  • If retracements are less common on a given weekday, you can reduce reliance on the level and avoid forcing trades toward it.

This helps prevent treating every session as structurally identical.

Understanding and importance

Market behavior can vary by weekday due to positioning, liquidity, and recurring flows. Viewing midnight open retracements through a weekday lens adds context, allowing you to judge whether today’s setup historically favors a return to the level or not.

Example

  • On Wednesdays, the report shows a higher-than-average rate of midnight open retracements.

  • That suggests that, all else equal, targeting the midnight open on Wednesdays has historically been more reliable than the baseline.


Size Subreport

What does this measure?

This report evaluates midnight open retracements based on the size of the move from midnight to the New York open. It allows you to filter retracement behavior by how far price has already traveled before the NY session begins.

How can I use this?

Use opening size to fine-tune trade selection:

  • If smaller moves from midnight to NY open retrace more frequently, you can prioritize those scenarios.

  • If larger displacements show lower retracement rates, you can avoid trades that assume price will return to the midnight open.

  • This helps you align trades with conditions where the level has historically been more likely to be reached.

Understanding and importance

Not all overnight moves behave the same way. The size-based view helps distinguish between modest imbalances that tend to mean-revert and larger displacements that may persist, improving both entry selection and expectation management.

Example

  • Midnight open: $3,500

  • New York open: $3,510

  • Overnight move size: +0.29%

  • If this size bucket shows a high retracement rate in the report, targeting the midnight open becomes statistically justified for that scenario.


Putting It Together

Across all three views, the Midnight Open Retracement reports help answer three key questions:

  1. Does price usually return to the midnight open during NY hours? (Standard)

  2. Does that behavior change by weekday? (Weekday)

  3. Does the size of the overnight move matter? (Size)

By combining these perspectives, you can decide when the midnight open is a high-probability target—and when it’s better left alone—allowing you to trade the concept with data-backed confidence instead of assumption.

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